Thiruvananthapuram: The loss of a high-stakes by-election, where a popular CPI(M) leader failed to win on the party’s own symbol, is being interpreted as a seismic shock and a clear symptom of organizational collapse within Kerala’s ruling party. A preliminary assessment by the LDF and CPI(M) leadership points to a stark conclusion: the party machinery is dangerously disconnected from the common people it claims to represent.
For years, critics have warned that the CPI(M) was drifting away from its grassroots. This defeat serves as irrefutable proof. The party’s local units failed to read the public mood, misjudged the impact of key issues, and were unable to counter the opposition’s narrative effectively.
Critical Miscalculations and Flawed Strategy
A major blunder was the party’s decision to completely ignore the influence of rebel candidate P.V. Anvar. Internal reports that dismissed him as a non-threat proved disastrously wrong. The final tally shows that Anvar successfully siphoned off a significant chunk of the traditional Left vote bank. This failure to anticipate the damage from a disgruntled ally highlights the party’s growing isolation from ground realities.
The campaign strategy itself is under fire. The decision to have Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan camp and lead the campaign in a single constituency, turning it into a prestige battle, is now seen as a tactical error. Furthermore, a campaign that began on the plank of development and political issues was ultimately dragged into a communal narrative set by the UDF. “They dug a pit, and the CPI(M) fell right into it,” a party insider commented. The party believes that since the Thrikkakara by-election, the Congress and the Muslim League have been successfully consolidating communal forces against the LDF.
Leadership Gaffe and Internal Dissent
Making a bad situation worse was a last-minute gaffe by CPI(M) State Secretary M.V. Govindan. In an interview with Mathrubhumi News on the eve of the election, his comments regarding an alleged RSS connection caused significant damage, alienating a section of the minority community. This has compounded existing criticism that Govindan has been unable to energize the party’s organizational structure since taking charge, a sentiment reportedly shared by a deeply displeased Chief Minister.
The Looming Electoral Waterloo
With less than ten months to go for the State Assembly elections and local body polls even sooner, this defeat is a red alert for the LDF. The coalition’s recent electoral successes have been heavily dependent on the consolidation of minority votes, particularly from the Muslim community. Now, with groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and SDPI openly aligning with the UDF alongside the Muslim League, that support base is no longer guaranteed. Govindan’s ill-timed remark could have lasting negative repercussions within this demographic.
Simultaneously, the party has already noted the erosion of its majority-community votes due to outfits like the BDJS. Faced with a crumbling vote base on both sides, the path to a historic third consecutive term in power looks anything but easy. Unless the Pinarayi government urgently addresses its administrative shortcomings and launches a massive drive to rebuild its broken party machinery, the upcoming elections could become a “Waterloo” for the CPI(M), jeopardizing the very survival of the LDF government.
