THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The political crisis for Kerala’s ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) has deepened following crushing defeats in the recent by-elections for the Nilambur and Wayanad constituencies. The losses raise serious questions about the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, as an analysis of the LDF’s electoral performance since its historic 2021 victory reveals a grim statistic: a win rate of just 2 in 26 major contests.
Once celebrated as the invincible ‘Captain’ who led the LDF to a second consecutive term—a first in Kerala’s modern political history—Pinarayi Vijayan’s electoral magic appears to have faded significantly. His pre-2021 peak saw the LDF wresting traditional opposition strongholds in by-elections, cementing his reputation as a master strategist.
However, the period since that historic win tells a story of consistent decline. The LDF has faced a cascade of defeats, including heavy losses in the Thrikkakara and Puthuppally by-elections, and a near-total wipeout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections where it won only 1 of the state’s 20 seats. The latest losses in Nilambur, a sitting LDF seat, and the high-profile Wayanad constituency have now brought the tally to 24 defeats in 26 contests.
The Chief Minister had personally spearheaded the campaign in Nilambur for candidate M. Swaraj, making the defeat there a direct blow to his prestige and a perceived rejection of his government’s performance.
The LDF’s only two successes in this period were the Alathur Lok Sabha seat and retaining the Chelakkara assembly seat in a by-election, albeit with a sharply reduced majority. Critics argue that even these victories were largely credited to the personal charisma of the candidate, K. Radhakrishnan, rather than a pro-government wave.
This stark electoral record points to a significant erosion of Pinarayi Vijayan’s political capital and suggests a powerful anti-incumbency sentiment across the state. The leader who once seemed unassailable now finds himself at a critical crossroads, facing a formidable challenge to his authority and the LDF’s future prospects.
